PC Sales Continue to Shrink at the Hands of Tablets

Posted on January 14, 2013 by

You don't need a table like the one above (courtesy of Gartner via Engadget) to see what's happening in tech sales today. You simply need to look around. More and more people are discovering that tablets – especially the iPad – are not only sufficient for the vast majority of their “computing” needs, they are in many cases superior. You see it on planes, in offices, coffee shops, homes, buses…everywhere.

And the result is that PC sales are shrinking outright. Shrinking. Not growing more slowly, but shrinking. The incursion of tablets has offloaded so many activities from PCs that the reasons to upgrade a PC (or even a Mac…) are shrinking. On the hardware side, what most have is still good enough. On the software side it's been a while since Microsoft put any compelling new features into Windows.

Windows 8 however marks a large shift in that OS, at least on the surface (ha). Its live-tile interface bears no resemblance to Windows 7 (even if the standard interface is a click away). And its in-built touch features are also a departure from prior desktop OS's. But so far it hasn't made a compelling case for itself in the marketplace. That could change soon.

Once Windows 8 tablets (running full blown Windows, not RT) start shipping en masse sales will likely start to take off. I predict a rather large PC hardware upgrade cycle as people and corporations ditch XP-era hardware for Windows 8 units in the tablet form they've come to love in the iPad. Microsoft Surface isn't a bad piece of hardware, and running full blown Windows 8 should give it and its clones a strong footing in the marketplace.

However, at 2 pounds and with a 4-5 hour battery life (and yes, those are the likely specs for the Surface Pro running full Windows 8) these things aren't going to dislodge the iPad overnight. In fact if anything I think they'll serve to push an explosion in sales of smaller and lighter tablets like the iPad mini, for use as companion devices, as people have come to want and expect as small and light a footprint as possible.

 

About these ads
Posted in Hardware, iPad as primary computer, PC sales, Speculation | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Happy New Year iPad Community!

Posted on January 1, 2013 by

Happy 2013 everyone! Big things planned for the blog this year, including an upcoming post with my take on the Apple TV rumors. I think I got it… Cheers!

Posted in Fun, Musings, Rumors, Speculation | Tagged | Leave a comment

Apple CEO Tim Cook goes (almost) iPad Alone

Posted on December 12, 2012 by

As you've likely read, Apple CEO Tim Cook recently gave his first extended public interview. My favorite tidbit was the widely reported statement by Cook that he uses his iPad 80% of the time, has ditched physical keyboards almost entirely, and has entered the so called post-PC era with gusto.

Here I say: welcome to my world Mr. Cook!

It's no surprise really. There's a reason why PC sales are shrinking (not slowing, shrinking) and tablet sales are booming, cannibalizing PC sales, even though some continue to miss the forest for the trees. The simple reality is that for most of the people most of the time a tablet is a better tool to accomplish what they need to accomplish. And since the iPad remains far and away the best tablet on the market, it sits firmly at the top of the post-PC world.

Sorry if this feels like an I told you so post. And before you say “well 80% still means he uses a Mac 20% of the time” I would say two things:

1) My bet is that 80% understates the reality

2) If the CEO of the largest company in the world (by market cap) can use an iPad at least 80% of the time, can't you?

Posted in iPad as primary computer | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

iPad Mini. Want.

Posted on November 2, 2012 by

I still have no power (NYSEG now estimates restoration at 11 p.m. Sunday night) but I managed to get my mitts on an iPad mini today at the Apple store in Stamford, CT. As it happens, the store had no mini’s on display; several employees were carrying them around instead. They were more than happy to show them off and allowed extensive in hand demos.

Bottom line: I want one.

Yup, I’d read the reviews, made a cutout, and used other devices to get a sense for its size and weight. But in the hand….wow. To say that it weighs 1/2 as much as the iPad doesn’t quite capture it. The marginal returns from the weight loss seem greater than 2X if you follow me. And it’s seriously thin. It feels like waaaaaay less in the hand, in a less is more kind of way. Wonderful.

I focused on iBooks and Safari. Those are the apps I could envision allowing a mini to suck usage time away from my iPad. My concerns about the keyboard were more or less validated – no extensive text entry in landscape is likely for me, though using two thumbs in portrait wasn’t bad. A quick tweet and an email bore that out.

Safari was fine though not as luxuriant as on the iPad. iBooks otoh is an entirely different animal. I enjoy reading on my iPad but the weight is definitely fatiguing over time. I still do it but I would happily do it more, and more comfortably, on a mini.

As for the screen, it was fine. It worked fine for me on an iPad 1 and 2, so shrunken down was a marginal improvement over that (admittedly out of date) experience. I’ll happily get a mini with a retina display when they ultimately make one. In the meantime, they’d sold out of the 16GB model or I might’ve grabbed one on impulse. Instead, this goes on my Christmas list.

Go check one out in person. You will want one.

Posted in ipad, ipad mini, Musings | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Getting a sense for the size of the iPad mini

Posted on October 24, 2012 by

Here's an interesting trick. If you have an iPhone 5, try holding it in one hand in landscape. The iPad mini is a little less than 1/2″ wider than that. However the ipad mini is also ever so slightly thinner, and has a curved back. So all in all it should feel roughly similar in the hand (in size, not weight obviously) as does the iPhone 5 in landscape. I like it.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

My Early Take on the iPad Mini, and the iPad “4″

Posted on October 24, 2012 by

First, 100 million iPads sold to date. 100 MILLION! In two and a half years. That's absolutely stunning, and phenomenal, and way beyond my wildest expectations. I think it also speaks to a far greater degree of PC cannibalization than even I'd expected. I know the previously installed tablet base was essentially zero, but it certainly shows that an awful lot of people realize that an iPad can do 9x% of what they need, 9x% of the time, and often times way better than can a laptop.

Second, the price of the Mini. I'd hoped for $249, guessed $299 based on recent rumblings and the existing iPod Touch price point, and it came in at a starting price of $329. Hmm.

I think Apple missed an opportunity at the $249 level which probably could've been attained via the inclusion of an 8GB model. I know that's not much storage, but with the iCloud push they could've gotten away with it I think. And it would've been that much closer to impulse purchase price levels. I know everyone defines that differently – for me it would be more like $199, which I could see stretching to $249 based on faith in Apple. As it stands, $329 is not an impulse purchase for me and so I've not preordered one. I can imagine changing that stance once I hold one in my hands.

Weight and size. I'm extremely and pleasantly surprised by the weight. .68 pounds is definitely lighter than I expected given the overall size. I can't wait (ha) to feel one in hand. And to get a sense for the physical dimensions I cut out a cardboard mockup and you know what? I really can lay it in one hand and get my thumb and ring finger to grasp it. I have large hands however, and of course the proof will be in the pudding. But from the spec sheet, it looks like Apple got this right.

Screen. This is a 'meh' for me, which is to say I'm not not getting one because it isn't a retina screen. I think iPad 2 resolution shrunken down will work fine for most. That said, when the mini inevitably gets a retina screen it could conceivably push me over the edge to purchase one.

Am I getting one? Not straight away, no. It's a touch pricier than I'd prefer. And then there's the whole existential crisis thing for an iPad Alone guy like me. Would a mini make me an iPad + iPad Mini Alone guy? Do I excuse the Mini by being nonetheless an iPad, and so technically qualified to exist in my bag of tricks?

One of the main reasons I went all iPad in the first place was the enormous size and weight advantage the iPad held over laptops. The mini further extends that advantage, but combine it in a bag with a regular iPad and all of a sudden I'm hauling as much weight around as an 11″ Air. That doesn't sound so good. Which then means I have to decide which iPad I want to take with me on a given journey. Possible I suppose. For me it would come down to typing. I'm super fast in landscape on the iPad. Can't imagine taking the mini if I anticipated any reasonable amount of typing. Reading? Mini. Typing? iPad. Still, I'm not sure I'd like having to choose. So for the moment I sit this out (easy prediction: a future post wherein I explain why I finally got a mini).

The iPad “4″ As you've no doubt seen, Apple also replaced the new iPad with an even newer new iPad. Improved guts, lightning connector, faster charger. Certainly nice, and something to make me jealous. But not enough to make me upgrade from my now-old new iPad. An incremental change without a killer new feature (for the original new iPad that killer feature was the retina screen). So I sit this one out. But new buyers will undoubtedly be thrilled.

I do wonder if Apple has now moved and synchronized iOS device update time frames to the Fall. That would make the Spring awfully boring however, something I can't imagine Apple doing, especially as they also just updated just about every Mac model under the sun. So what's left for Spring? Mild refreshes? An iPhone 5S and a really new iPad? We shall see.

Posted in Features, Hardware, iOS, ipad, ipad mini, Musings | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

My last minute guess at the iPad Mini’s starting price is…

Posted on October 22, 2012 by

…$249

See you tomorrow.

Posted in Hardware, iOS, ipad, ipad mini, Musings, Speculation | Tagged | 4 Comments