Dream: I have drunk gallons of Kool-Aid.  I am a believer.  I’ve watched the keynote and promo videos.  More than once.  I’ve read the pundits, both pro and con, entering into thoughtful debate where appropriate.  And I am prepared to ditch my MBP and embrace the iPad fully and without reservation as my primary computer.  Yes I have to keep my household iMac for the few things the iPad is physically incapable of (ripping media primarily, and acting as a central repository for storing and syncing).  But I am there and require no further convincing.  If the pre-order link was live my order would already be in.  I’m so excited at the prospect that I even started a blog for crying out loud.

Nightmare: I have chosen to purchase an $829 iPad – the most expensive available – rather than spend upwards of $2k on a loaded 13″ or 15″ MBP.  Okay yeah sure I’ll also buy the keyboard dock for use at my home base, so that’s another $69.  Still under $900 all in.  Wow.

I can’t confess to know Apple’s margins on its various product lines, but I’m pretty sure that they’re eating a lower margin on the iPad than they are on their laptops.  And I do believe that part of this was a conscious decision to go for shock value on the pricing.  And I think it worked.  Even the most vocal haters seem to be surprised that the thing doesn’t cost $1000 as so many assumed or feared it would.  So great that worked.  Now what?

What if I’m not alone?  What if Steve didn’t just introduce a complementary product category but a competitive one?  I mean, I’m sure they must’ve assumed some cannibalization of laptops in their modeling.  Enough to hurt income at the margin?  Probably not in their assumptions.  But if my vision of the future is right (and by future I mean 3 – 5 years out), Apple will sell more iPads than MBPs.  There.  I said it and I’m not going to take it back.