I know what you’re saying.  “Duh.  It’s because they’re selling more of them than expected.”

Yeah, but I want to know why they’re selling more than expected.  There are two underlying reasons I can think of:

– Apple underestimated the “take rate” on accessories, i.e. the % of iPad customers who would order a given accessory.

– Apple underestimated iPad sales, which, given a take rate of X% means commensurately higher accessory sales.

I guess we could add in a third, something about manufacturing/supply constraints, but I sort of doubt it.  Even if the designs were only locked a few months ago, I would think/hope Apple would have the logistical capabilities to get as many made for and through launch as they thought they’d need.

Once iPad sales and/or take rates proved higher than expected, I can “forgive” Apple for not then being able to more quickly ramp up accessory production.  But I find it tough to swallow that they simply couldn’t get the quantity thought they wanted in the first place.  Caveat: I’m no production/logistics guru.  I just think Apple is smarter than that 🙂

Slipping times for basic things like cases and docks well beyond the April 3 initial iPad ship date tells me that Apple was caught off guard, and in a good way 🙂  I didn’t wade into the many sales-estimates that were thrown around by pro and amateur Apple-watchers alike.  Somehow though when the dust settles I have a feeling we’re going to learn that the pre-sales were higher than most are currently estimating.  Looks like Apple may have gotten that one wrong too!

What do you think?